Interesting posting from bib in the BF forum........

bib
24 Apr 11:26

Hi, I could give some thoughts here as I have extensive tennis knowledge.

First of all I am not so sure about your strategy here, you are backing mostly short priced favorites and scratch the trade when they get into trouble. For me that means that the only way to win a bet is if the short priced favorite is a train to 1.01. I haven't checked the statistics but for me, from a trader's point of view - it's not very often the case.Take Almagro's last two matches before yesterday.

You could have backed him @ 1.4 and 1.5 pre match, and he won them. But he traded at odds of over 7 in each of them. That's where you're missing out on a lot of value. I wouldn't fancy my chances of making profits backing a favorite and only winning the bet IF he is a train to 1.01. Markets usually know when a fav wins like that, and you get no value in the odds - Wozniacki for example. She wins a lot of straight sets matches but the odds on her are a joke.Also, the quality of the picks is debatable, IF you want 1.01 trains, you have to be very very careful with the selection, and this is where I think you come up short.

Also you need much better loss management, I saw you lost 15% of your bank in a single day, you cannot afford losses like that.Hope you take these thoughts into consideration when you decide to make changes to your strategy.

Cheers.


my answer

bib,

thanks for posting and particularly with regard to your tennis knowledge. At one point I have to agree with CurlyBlues that if a player is losing the first set, and a break down I don't want to sit in and wait for him winning the match. then I will try to get my scratch, even if he lost the first set thats enough for me to go for the exit. Sometimes for example yesterday the Verdasco match, I will try to stay in the match, because the price is allowing it. this depends on the mass price behaviour.

Regarding the quality of picks I will not argue with you, because you are 100% right. Here is avery big point to optimize the strategy.

My point is that I don't know if the fav will win at all, in gerneral nobody knows it. I will go with the fav as long it is an easy match, like you said a 1.01 train. If I see that it is going the hard way, I try to find the exit. I am still convinced, that the scratch trades are actually my winners at the end of the story.

Interesting is that until today nobody gave me an answer regarding the numbers, for example I had more than 300 initial 600 bets, around 230000$ turnaround and I am down 2300$ = 1% and around 1700$ paid commission. not to mention the retirements. How many trades or turnaround do I need that those numbers will be meaningful/convincing?To tell you the truth, if I will not lose any money here I am very much satisfied.

Again thank you very much for trying to help,it is very much appreciated.

I am convinced that posting like yours and some of CurlyBlues :) are always helpful in some way.