Thursday, April 9, 2009
Another well-meant posting out of the betair forum
nathanrh
31 Mar 02:59
horselover777.Out of interest I wen't back through your thread and pulled the following list of losing bets.Groth 1.41 (493)Dubois 1.58 (840)Dokic 1.27 (960)Suarez Navarro 1.43 (906)Errani 1.38 (852)Zheng 1.39 (644)Simon 1.34 (930)Lapenti 1.37 (912)Kohlschreiber 1.40 (1038)Soderling 1.34 (1050)Nalbandian 1.27(600)Robredo 1.35 (600)Petrova 1.39 (600)Total loss for those bets is 10,425.When you are backing 1.25-1.4 shots you need a proportionally low rate of losers, note also this list doesn't include many others of your short priced shots that you were forced to trade out of in-play.So IMHO you have the basis of a winning system, but I'd suggest perhaps you consider laying the short priced selections and backing those with a higher potential for return.Someone once told me that if you aren't getting at least 3-4 parts for every 5 you are staking the poorhouse awaits.
Good luck .
my answer
nathanrh,
first of all thanks for taking the time to try to get deeper in my strategy and trying to help.with laying the short priced selections, I have a problem. I mentioned this before in an earlier posting. I dont see the exit strategy for the short price lays.your idea with backing only the high priced selections is imho spot on. I thought about it all the time. I thought to back only 1.49 to 1.95 because the winning bets will bring more money in and the losers will cost me less.I need to think about this in more depth and try it in real, because no backtesting possible.I will need to take the time and go through the 1.49 = backed selections and see how the outcome would have been. just for info, till today I had 161 backed selections. with many bad beats and 3 retirements and commission paid. thanks again for pointing this out, it always helps when people from outside like spectators are watching. they see more than the one inwolved.
cheers
31 Mar 02:59
horselover777.Out of interest I wen't back through your thread and pulled the following list of losing bets.Groth 1.41 (493)Dubois 1.58 (840)Dokic 1.27 (960)Suarez Navarro 1.43 (906)Errani 1.38 (852)Zheng 1.39 (644)Simon 1.34 (930)Lapenti 1.37 (912)Kohlschreiber 1.40 (1038)Soderling 1.34 (1050)Nalbandian 1.27(600)Robredo 1.35 (600)Petrova 1.39 (600)Total loss for those bets is 10,425.When you are backing 1.25-1.4 shots you need a proportionally low rate of losers, note also this list doesn't include many others of your short priced shots that you were forced to trade out of in-play.So IMHO you have the basis of a winning system, but I'd suggest perhaps you consider laying the short priced selections and backing those with a higher potential for return.Someone once told me that if you aren't getting at least 3-4 parts for every 5 you are staking the poorhouse awaits.
Good luck .
my answer
nathanrh,
first of all thanks for taking the time to try to get deeper in my strategy and trying to help.with laying the short priced selections, I have a problem. I mentioned this before in an earlier posting. I dont see the exit strategy for the short price lays.your idea with backing only the high priced selections is imho spot on. I thought about it all the time. I thought to back only 1.49 to 1.95 because the winning bets will bring more money in and the losers will cost me less.I need to think about this in more depth and try it in real, because no backtesting possible.I will need to take the time and go through the 1.49 = backed selections and see how the outcome would have been. just for info, till today I had 161 backed selections. with many bad beats and 3 retirements and commission paid. thanks again for pointing this out, it always helps when people from outside like spectators are watching. they see more than the one inwolved.
cheers
A well-meant posting out of the betfair forum
ebasson61
08 Apr 16:00
horseloverYou seem like a decent bloke and respond well to both criticisms and congratulations in the same even-handed manner, but you need to take a serious look at what you're doing I think. Your thread has only been going a month but it's been a slow and steady decline. In that short space of time you are already 3,000 down with a third of your bank lost - and the trend is only going one way. Don't be fooled by the odd day or two of good wins as these are inevitably being wiped out by large losses. I trust you have a spreadsheet for you daily/weekly P&L (and if you don't I suggest you start one immediately). It must be showing you a sea a red and alarm bells should be ringing.Tennis is not my area so I have no grounds/knowledge to criticise your selections, but on the face of it they appear well-considered. Your staking method however appears to be all over the place with little or no fall-back plan when a match goes against you. It's this that is wiping-out any hard-earned gains you have made. I wish you all the best, I really do. And it's nice to see people continue with their threads through thick and thin - but it's surely time for a review?
my answer
ebasson61,welcome and thanks for the well-meant posting.yes the thread is only going for a month with 203 bets. a month is a small timeframe, but the 203 bets? is this a lot? the drawdown is a 3rd of the bank roll. I dont see a steady slow and steady decline. I think that people have a big problem with drawdowns.but there is no system or strategy without a drawdown, imho. I have to repeat myself, I tested it before with a smaller bank roll and had the same drawdowns.this is the reason I said to myself, I will do it with a bigger bank roll and this thread is helping me to keep the discipline and patience that is needed in case of a drawdown like now. sure, I could optimize the strategy with every loss. but I will not. this is the mistake most of the people are doing,imho. they optimize after each loss and lose their head. I will stick to it with this bank roll. I am also very confident that I will recover the loss. I had 3 retirements, and some bad beats and scratch trades. the 3 retirements is already half of the loss. now regarding the spreadsheet. I am already an old man and not so fit like the youngesters here. I dont know what you understand under the spreadsheet, and the alarm bells. maybe you can help meto understand a spreadsheet to make my life easier I put the daily P&L in an excel file with the results. thats all.my strategy has a fix entry and an exit with max loss number. the entry = to chose the fav, could be much better if I would put more work in searching for the fav selections. like I said before, Rome from the tennis forum could much better than me with the fav selection to my strategy.thank you again for trying to point me in the right direction. I appreciate every posting like yours.
I wish you all the best
08 Apr 16:00
horseloverYou seem like a decent bloke and respond well to both criticisms and congratulations in the same even-handed manner, but you need to take a serious look at what you're doing I think. Your thread has only been going a month but it's been a slow and steady decline. In that short space of time you are already 3,000 down with a third of your bank lost - and the trend is only going one way. Don't be fooled by the odd day or two of good wins as these are inevitably being wiped out by large losses. I trust you have a spreadsheet for you daily/weekly P&L (and if you don't I suggest you start one immediately). It must be showing you a sea a red and alarm bells should be ringing.Tennis is not my area so I have no grounds/knowledge to criticise your selections, but on the face of it they appear well-considered. Your staking method however appears to be all over the place with little or no fall-back plan when a match goes against you. It's this that is wiping-out any hard-earned gains you have made. I wish you all the best, I really do. And it's nice to see people continue with their threads through thick and thin - but it's surely time for a review?
my answer
ebasson61,welcome and thanks for the well-meant posting.yes the thread is only going for a month with 203 bets. a month is a small timeframe, but the 203 bets? is this a lot? the drawdown is a 3rd of the bank roll. I dont see a steady slow and steady decline. I think that people have a big problem with drawdowns.but there is no system or strategy without a drawdown, imho. I have to repeat myself, I tested it before with a smaller bank roll and had the same drawdowns.this is the reason I said to myself, I will do it with a bigger bank roll and this thread is helping me to keep the discipline and patience that is needed in case of a drawdown like now. sure, I could optimize the strategy with every loss. but I will not. this is the mistake most of the people are doing,imho. they optimize after each loss and lose their head. I will stick to it with this bank roll. I am also very confident that I will recover the loss. I had 3 retirements, and some bad beats and scratch trades. the 3 retirements is already half of the loss. now regarding the spreadsheet. I am already an old man and not so fit like the youngesters here. I dont know what you understand under the spreadsheet, and the alarm bells. maybe you can help meto understand a spreadsheet to make my life easier I put the daily P&L in an excel file with the results. thats all.my strategy has a fix entry and an exit with max loss number. the entry = to chose the fav, could be much better if I would put more work in searching for the fav selections. like I said before, Rome from the tennis forum could much better than me with the fav selection to my strategy.thank you again for trying to point me in the right direction. I appreciate every posting like yours.
I wish you all the best
Yesterday results....................
Tennis: -USD934.10 Total P&L: -USD934.10
Tennis Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets of 203 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss ($)
Tennis / Chardy v Garcia Lopez : Match Odds 09-Apr-09 00:00 09-Apr-09 01:10 -600.00
Tennis / Capdeville v Isner : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 21:30 09-Apr-09 00:26 24.23
Tennis / Starace v Ferrero : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 16:30 08-Apr-09 21:31 229.45
Tennis / K Bondarenko v A Bondarenko : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 18:00 08-Apr-09 20:37 46.37 Tennis / Ljubicic v Gil : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 15:15 08-Apr-09 19:27 19.50
Tennis / Hanescu v Navarro : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 15:15 08-Apr-09 16:39 206.50
Tennis / Ventura v Montanes : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 14:00 08-Apr-09 16:23 25.20
Tennis / Klepac v Cirstea : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 13:30 08-Apr-09 15:39 20.65
Tennis / Vinci v Vaidisova : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 12:00 08-Apr-09 13:26 -906.00
Tennis: -USD4,069.20 Total P&L: -USD4,069.20
Tennis Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets of 203 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss ($)
Tennis / Chardy v Garcia Lopez : Match Odds 09-Apr-09 00:00 09-Apr-09 01:10 -600.00
Tennis / Capdeville v Isner : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 21:30 09-Apr-09 00:26 24.23
Tennis / Starace v Ferrero : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 16:30 08-Apr-09 21:31 229.45
Tennis / K Bondarenko v A Bondarenko : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 18:00 08-Apr-09 20:37 46.37 Tennis / Ljubicic v Gil : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 15:15 08-Apr-09 19:27 19.50
Tennis / Hanescu v Navarro : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 15:15 08-Apr-09 16:39 206.50
Tennis / Ventura v Montanes : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 14:00 08-Apr-09 16:23 25.20
Tennis / Klepac v Cirstea : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 13:30 08-Apr-09 15:39 20.65
Tennis / Vinci v Vaidisova : Match Odds 08-Apr-09 12:00 08-Apr-09 13:26 -906.00
Tennis: -USD4,069.20 Total P&L: -USD4,069.20
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