very good posting from bib in the BF forum regarding the TB..............

bib
25 Apr 10:28

bib,

horselover asking Curlyblues

I forgot one question. what are you thinking about the TB? for me it is like a toss of a coin. sometimes it depends on the players, but in general?

Yes - the tiebreak is quite a sensitive subject and given your exit strategy I can see why you choose to avoid the first set tiebreak if you backed the favorite. Two good indicators as to what the outcome of the tiebreak will be are current form and tiebreak record. Tiebreak record is very important as there are players that are known to play their best in a tiebreak and you will see that the market will stop supporting them even if they are favorite and they go into a first set tiebreak for example. To give some names - Murray, Djokovic, Federer, Tsonga, Roddick, Berdych and a few more.
There are some pitfalls though, as form matters too, for example when Canas was in good form, he would win a lot of tiebreaks but as his level started to drop, he would lose 60-70 percent of the tiebreaks played. Again - it is your job as a punter to check these stats.

my answer

bib,

thanks for your answer and explanation regarding the TB. your explanation supports actually my thinking to take the TB as a coin toss.
even if one could do better in some TB's if he did the research like you are proposing.may I ask if you are familiar with ROI and the numbers that could give some insight?

cheers