another interesting posting from the betfair forum.........

Roger OASIS
17 Apr 01:15

Sorry to see this horselover:
Tennis: -USD1,501.90 Total P&L: -USD1,501.90

I know you want to stick with your current strategy but look at the analysis:
-996
-936
-911
-600
-17
-13
0 0
26
36
48
144
189
218
218
287
386
419
---------
1,861

Simply, your 7 highest winnings amounts are only covering the top 2 losses.

I speak from some experience of a similar system as for 9 months now, I have manually noted the lowest price that horses traded at - without winning - in all U.K. and Ireland markets.

I have have stats now for over 5,000 races and the curved back to prove it!I wanted a system where my own thoughts/views/knowledge did not sway me and horse-racing fitted the bill as i know very little about it and have purposefully maintained that.Similar to you when you said that other posters know more about tennis than you.

I now lay the field at certaiin courses and at certain types of races but was puzzled after several months, why I was not winning more often, even after discovering other factors along the way such as Irish races often have liitle liquidity, Sunday races can also be poor etc etc - perhaps similar to in your case, unusual number of retirements.

So I analysed my spread-sheets, and found I was laying too high because I wanted 'safety'.So if the most profitable lay would be 1.30, I would then lay at 1.50 as I felt covered by the 20 pts gap. If it was 1.45, then I would lay at 1.65.
As a person, I feel more comfortable if I can win smaller amounts regularly than one large win followed by several small losses. We all have our quirks and that by nature is me.

But, I've had to change my tactics and now lay a lot lower - and hence much nearer the most profitable figure - and my profit levels have improved.There were 2 similar races yesterday, where my most profitable lay was 1.17.Two months ago I would have laid 20 points higher at 1.37.Result 1st race - lowest traded without winning was 1.22. Result 2nd race - lowest traded without winning was 1.13.

Using £ 100 fixed level liability (although I'm not that high yet!)New method at 1.17 = 388 ((-100) + (588-100=488)).Old 'comfort' method at 1.37 = + 340 (270-100 x 2 races).

£48 is not a lot of difference but then multiplied by the number of races that are held each week in UK/Ireland, makes a considerable difference in the long term.

Actually, I usually split my lay into 3 or 4 parts. anyway e.g. if best lay is 1.17 then, roughly 25% - 1.17, 25% - 1.19 25% - 1.21, 25% - 1.23.

Also, there are often large amounts of say £ 2,000 at 1.20 and my small stakes would sit behind that, so I put in a higher amount say 1.21.

Anyway, I hope all this helps or even though you do not use of 'notes from my journey', might perhaps give you a kernel of an idea to approach your scheme from another view point.

For any other readers, I will not answer any questions as this is horselover's own private thread.