Another well-meant posting out of the betair forum

nathanrh
31 Mar 02:59
horselover777.Out of interest I wen't back through your thread and pulled the following list of losing bets.Groth 1.41 (493)Dubois 1.58 (840)Dokic 1.27 (960)Suarez Navarro 1.43 (906)Errani 1.38 (852)Zheng 1.39 (644)Simon 1.34 (930)Lapenti 1.37 (912)Kohlschreiber 1.40 (1038)Soderling 1.34 (1050)Nalbandian 1.27(600)Robredo 1.35 (600)Petrova 1.39 (600)Total loss for those bets is 10,425.When you are backing 1.25-1.4 shots you need a proportionally low rate of losers, note also this list doesn't include many others of your short priced shots that you were forced to trade out of in-play.So IMHO you have the basis of a winning system, but I'd suggest perhaps you consider laying the short priced selections and backing those with a higher potential for return.Someone once told me that if you aren't getting at least 3-4 parts for every 5 you are staking the poorhouse awaits.
Good luck .

my answer

nathanrh,

first of all thanks for taking the time to try to get deeper in my strategy and trying to help.with laying the short priced selections, I have a problem. I mentioned this before in an earlier posting. I dont see the exit strategy for the short price lays.your idea with backing only the high priced selections is imho spot on. I thought about it all the time. I thought to back only 1.49 to 1.95 because the winning bets will bring more money in and the losers will cost me less.I need to think about this in more depth and try it in real, because no backtesting possible.I will need to take the time and go through the 1.49 = backed selections and see how the outcome would have been. just for info, till today I had 161 backed selections. with many bad beats and 3 retirements and commission paid. thanks again for pointing this out, it always helps when people from outside like spectators are watching. they see more than the one inwolved.

cheers