A well-meant posting out of the betfair forum

ebasson61
08 Apr 16:00
horseloverYou seem like a decent bloke and respond well to both criticisms and congratulations in the same even-handed manner, but you need to take a serious look at what you're doing I think. Your thread has only been going a month but it's been a slow and steady decline. In that short space of time you are already 3,000 down with a third of your bank lost - and the trend is only going one way. Don't be fooled by the odd day or two of good wins as these are inevitably being wiped out by large losses. I trust you have a spreadsheet for you daily/weekly P&L (and if you don't I suggest you start one immediately). It must be showing you a sea a red and alarm bells should be ringing.Tennis is not my area so I have no grounds/knowledge to criticise your selections, but on the face of it they appear well-considered. Your staking method however appears to be all over the place with little or no fall-back plan when a match goes against you. It's this that is wiping-out any hard-earned gains you have made. I wish you all the best, I really do. And it's nice to see people continue with their threads through thick and thin - but it's surely time for a review?

my answer

ebasson61,welcome and thanks for the well-meant posting.yes the thread is only going for a month with 203 bets. a month is a small timeframe, but the 203 bets? is this a lot? the drawdown is a 3rd of the bank roll. I dont see a steady slow and steady decline. I think that people have a big problem with drawdowns.but there is no system or strategy without a drawdown, imho. I have to repeat myself, I tested it before with a smaller bank roll and had the same drawdowns.this is the reason I said to myself, I will do it with a bigger bank roll and this thread is helping me to keep the discipline and patience that is needed in case of a drawdown like now. sure, I could optimize the strategy with every loss. but I will not. this is the mistake most of the people are doing,imho. they optimize after each loss and lose their head. I will stick to it with this bank roll. I am also very confident that I will recover the loss. I had 3 retirements, and some bad beats and scratch trades. the 3 retirements is already half of the loss. now regarding the spreadsheet. I am already an old man and not so fit like the youngesters here. I dont know what you understand under the spreadsheet, and the alarm bells. maybe you can help meto understand a spreadsheet to make my life easier I put the daily P&L in an excel file with the results. thats all.my strategy has a fix entry and an exit with max loss number. the entry = to chose the fav, could be much better if I would put more work in searching for the fav selections. like I said before, Rome from the tennis forum could much better than me with the fav selection to my strategy.thank you again for trying to point me in the right direction. I appreciate every posting like yours.

I wish you all the best